Product Managers early into their career might get a bit frustrated when their product 
features do not sometimes make an impact in the market with the users. Usually, they get questioned on why an investment was made in a feature which has made little or no impact. Does it mean good Product Managers have to be good astrologers? Not at all. If only Product Managers knew what the future is – so perfectly – they could have chosen a profession which is a lot more lucrative – professing the future for world leaders and business conglomerates – who struggle to make the right decisions. Product Managers work on features or products – small and big – some make big impact in the market – some don’t. Does it mean Product Managers are gamblers and work on something at random. Not at all.
Product Managers should have their ears on the ground. They should know the pulse of their users. Essentially a product walks with the foot of the Product Manager. Based on hours of interaction with users, analysis of vast data and knowledge of the market – a Product Manager comes up with what would be the next thing that would solve a (burning) 
user/customer problem or improve user engagement. It might appear to others as mere intuition – but it is not; Product Management is not Astrology. However, such carefully acquired intuitions can go wrong and make a Product Manager appear more as a Gambler. Again – where the Product Manager’s skill comes into effect is to define what one will measure when the new feature is rolled out and what would be the minimal viable product to extract maximum learning. Essentially – “fail fast” – determine that something is not working and warrants no further investment or needs a pivot based on the learning. There is no gambling involved here.
A corollary of this argument would be when products/features are successful; the same Product Managers are termed visionaries.
Photo credits: Gil and William Cho
The Product Mantra 